October NFP Blackout: What Traders Must Know
October NFP did not print on Friday due to the federal shutdown. With the official jobs report missing, markets leaned on private proxies (ADP, layoffs, nowcasts), while Thursday “leak” rumors had no credible confirmation. This is your trade-ready game plan for USD, EUR/USD and XAU/USD as of Saturday, 4 Oct 2025.
It’s labeled October NFP because the release is scheduled in October even though it measures September payrolls. The shutdown created a rare data blackout just as labor momentum was cooling.
- Early Oct: Funding lapsed; non-essential publications paused.
- Jobs-day Friday: No Employment Situation report; the BLS posted a suspension notice.
With BLS staff furloughed and systems restricted to essential functions, routine releases are postponed until funding resumes. If the impasse persists, other reports such as CPI can also be delayed.
No authoritative confirmation of any Thursday “leak.” Anchor decisions to official notices and reputable private indicators.
Equities hovered near highs; USD traded two-way; gold stayed supported. If a catch-up print is soft, USD likely dips and gold gains; a strong surprise flips that script.
*Levels below are updated to the latest trading session after the NFP delay.*
| Instrument | Bias | Key Levels | Idea |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | Soft | R: 97.90–98.20 • S: 97.40 | Sell rallies • SL 98.40 • Invalidate > 98.55 |
| XAU/USD | Supported | Breakout > 3,895 → 3,920 / 3,945 | Buy dips 3,860–3,875 • SL 3,840 |
- Why is the October NFP missing? Funding lapsed; BLS paused releases during the shutdown.
- How long is the delay? Until funding resumes; historically, reports are republished after reopening.
- Could CPI be delayed too? Yes, if the shutdown persists.
- Was there a Thursday leak? No credible confirmation; treat as rumor.
- Best proxy without NFP? A mix of ADP, layoff trackers, and regional nowcasts.
- Risk tip: Use smaller sizes and respect levels around any catch-up release.
October NFP remains the missing piece. Proxies point to a cooling labor market, a slightly softer USD, and supportive gold—until the official print arrives. Trade the levels, respect volatility, and keep a disciplined news process.
