OPEC+ Shifts Course — Oil Falls Sharply After Goldman Sachs Forecasts a 140K bpd Output Hike
OPEC+ has shifted course, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 140,000 barrels-per-day output increase in November 2025. Oil sold off hard on the headline—Brent was trading near $66.69 at the time of writing—and FX markets quickly repriced energy-linked currencies such as USD/CAD (around 1.3952).
By signaling more supply, OPEC+ appears to prioritize market share over price support. That shift can ease global inflation pressures, weigh on energy equities, and lift USD/CAD as Canada’s terms of trade soften when crude falls.
- Sept 30: Goldman Sachs projects a 140k bpd quota hike for November. (Reuters)
- Early Oct: Oil extends weekly losses as traders price a looser supply path.
| Instrument | Bias | Key Levels | Trade Idea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | Bearish | R: $68.00–68.60 • S: $65.50 | Sell rallies • SL $69.00 • TP $64.80 |
| WTI Crude | Bearish | R: $64.80–65.50 • S: $62.90 | Sell rallies • SL $66.00 • TP $62.20 |
| USD/CAD | Bullish above 1.3920 | 1.3920–1.3970 • 1.4010 | Buy dips • SL 1.3870 • TP 1.4050 |
More barrels from OPEC+ point to softer energy inflation into Q4, giving central banks slightly more room to stay patient. For exporters, the trade-off is near-term revenue pressure in exchange for protecting longer-run market share.
The OPEC+ pivot marks a new phase for energy markets. Near-term bias stays bearish for crude and supportive for USD/CAD—until the group’s November quota is formally confirmed or demand surprises to the upside.
