US Government Shutdown Risks — October 2, 2025

Budget Cuts, Layoff Warnings, and Trump’s Push

• White House Budget Director Vought warned mass federal layoffs could begin “within two days”, with $18 billion cuts in New York infrastructure projects and $8 billion cuts in renewable energy.
• President Trump used the shutdown standoff to press for federal staff reductions, suspending billion-dollar state-backed projects.

Dollar Pressured as Job Data Weakens

• The US dollar stayed under pressure, with traders bracing for delayed economic reports including jobless claims and NFP.
• ADP report: A surprise 32,000 job loss in September vs. expectations of +45K jobs, raising labor market concerns.
• ISM manufacturing PMI: rose slightly to 49.1 from 48.7, still in contraction but showing mild improvement.
• US stocks extended gains despite economic uncertainty, while shutdown fears clouded investor sentiment.