In a newly published OECD Interim Economic Outlook, the international body warns that global growth could weaken by 2026 due to escalating tariff pressures. The report notes that the United States’ effective tariff rate reached around 19.5% by August 2025 — its highest level since the 1930s. OECD+2OECD+2

The projections anticipate that global growth will dip from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, while U.S. growth might slow from 1.8% to roughly 1.5%. OECD+2Bloomberg+2

From an analytical view, tariffs act as a brake on global trade by increasing costs and discouraging cross-border investment. Some firms may resort to front-loading imports before tariff hikes, but this is not a sustainable long-term strategy. OECD+1

My Insight:

• Export-reliant economies face elevated risk if they lack fallback strategies or diversification.
• Governments might need to offset impacts via fiscal stimulus, export incentives, or reducing internal barriers.
• In the long haul, globalization’s model may shift: regional trade pacts could become more favored over broad open markets.

Source Note:
This article is based on the OECD’s “Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2025.”